As most of you know, or if you don’t you should. Adam loves the statistics. And as he always likes to brag that the statistics sheet that is published by the MLS and printed in the paper was designed by Adam. The problem with answering questions about “how is the Market” is the only way you know realistically is looking back on it. Statistics are retrospective. Even though Adam figured out a way to make real estate statistics able to predict the future, he needed the help of a couple of large corporations. And after 3 years banging his head against that wall, he gave up.

So we are now 4 months into the pandemic, so there is data to look back on and see what happened to the real estate market. And the numbers are both surprising, and logical. There seems to be a real story here that can be told.

It is simple…and it is across the board. Or mainly across the board. And here it is in 3 bullet points.
Sales are down
Inventory is down
Prices are Up

~ Unless you are in Ashland, where prices have been declining for the past year.
(Jacksonville and Shady Cove also “show” a decline in median prices, but those two markets tend to be very up and down when only looking at 3 months of data. There are not enough sales, and houses are either $200,000 or $800,000. So I’ve learned to not put too much weight in those numbers.)

This mimics what Adam has seen in his appraisal practice. He has been doing negative adjustments for time in Ashland for the last several months.

These are significant numbers too. Sales across Jackson County are down 29% over last year.
And even more striking is that the number of available homes to purchase are down over 45%.

And with that county wide, the median price of homes has increased by 5%.

This is why this is logical and tells a story. Inventory has gone down more than sales have gone down. This decreases the supply which according a most economics methods increases the price. Compare this to 2007-2009. Sales went down…but inventory of houses kept going up. So the prices went down.

With this market, people stayed home. Wanted to stay home. Didn’t want people in their houses. So many people who may have wanted to sell in a normal year decided not too. But people who wanted to buy homes still wanted to have their own sanctuary. This is part of why it looks like rural properties have seen such a demand. The desire to have a sanctuary where you couldn’t hear your neighbor sneeze got more pronounced.

Rural property sales only declined by 12% and their inventory decreased by over 47%. This ended up netting an increase of prices of almost 11%.

Here is how other towns have faired:

Ashland:
Sales down 48%
Inventory down 34.5%
Prices down 5.3%

East Medford:
Sales down 30%
Inventory down 46.9%
Prices up 3.7%

West Medford:
Sales down 12%
Inventory down 50%
Prices up 4.3%

Central Point:
Sales down 18%
Inventory down 48.1%
Prices up 6.9%

Talent/Phoenix:
Sales up 5.5%
Inventory down 41.5%
Prices up 6.3%

I was just going back through  my files, and have statistics from 2003.  The format was not nearly as good as they were after I got involved with SOMLS and created a better format in 2008.  

So I find it hard to compare what is going on prior to 2008.

But I did find a 10 year comparison done in 2007.  

In 1998 the median sales price in Ashland was $166,000.  In 2007 it was $426,000.  That is a 250% increase in 10 years. INSANE!  25% increase per year. 

The Median last month in Ashland was $435,000. So now for the last 20 years, the increase is only 12.5% a year. 

So let’s compare that to the median income in Oregon. 

In 1998 the median income in Oregon was $39,000. That was up all the way to $60,000 by 2017. That is a 65% increase over 12 years, or 5.4% a year. 

So home prices increased at 25% a year while income increased at 5.4% a year.  There is no wonder that there is a housing crisis. 

So you are thinking you want a new house, but you have to sell your place first. What can you do?

First, give up on getting a great deal. I’m sorry to be so blunt, but a contingent offer is a sure fire way to NOT get a good deal. Why you might ask?

Because good deals just don’t last on the market for very long. There are multiple buyers out there competing against each other at any given time. While not all places get multiple offers, it is only because they are not priced below the market.

Houses priced considerably below the market value will almost ALWAYS get multiple offers. And if you are a seller, would you rather take an offer contingent upon someone selling their house, or not. The contingent offer will pretty much always lose. The amount one would have to offer over asking price would take the good deal…and make it not a good deal anymore. And there is still no guarantee that a seller would accept it.

Best way to get a contingent offer accepted is to look for a house that has been on the market for a LONG time. Something that is definitely priced above the market, and put an offer on that one. The seller might be motivated enough to get their price that they are willing to take the gamble.

But again…there goes the great deal.

There are ways to get contingent offers accepted….even when competing. Look for part 2 of this post.

I have been showing houses for years, and have shown hundreds of people thousands of house. And in that time, I have learned and observed many things.

There are a number of things a seller can do to make their house show better, and just as many they can do to make it show worse.

In my opinion, the worst thing a seller can do is be home during a showing.  I have seen over and over sellers getting in their own way with all the best of intentions. I get it too. Who knows more about the house than the seller. Who better can point out the little details that make this home special.  It is a huge investment for the seller, and they are definitely invested in the process. It is just important to know when the best thing they can do is to step out for a walk at just the right moment.

Here’s the biggest reason why. Buyer’s are uncomfortable when the seller’s are there. They already feel a little weird about walking through someone else’s house, opening their cupboards, flushing their toilets, etc….  So when the seller is lurking, 95 times out of 100, they will try to get out of the house as fast as possible without being rude. And the other 5 times, they feel overly trapped by politeness listening to the seller regale stories of how the grandkids used to play in the creek, etc…  But even when they make the connection with the seller, the house gets blurred in the background.  And that isn’t what a seller truly wants. Unless they have listed the house  as a ploy to make new friends. lol

I understand that some houses are complicated. Unique features that might be missed by a prospective buyer. Or complicated rural property with questions about property boundaries, well production, etc…  Instances like those, I have seen how having the seller’s around is beneficial. ON THE 2ND SHOWING. Buyer’s need to be able to feel themselves in a place, and that is a personal space equation most of the time. And if they don’t have a chance to do that during their 1st impression, they won’t be back for a 2nd one.

via GIFER

A good buyer’s agent knows how to give the buyer’s the appropriate amount of space, while pointing out things that might be less than obvious. (And of course keeping track of the seller’s personal property). I personally know a buyer is serious about a house when they sit down on the couch and view the home from there.  This will NEVER happen when the seller is home.

Worse yet, I’ve actually heard stories of sellers being at open houses, or showings, pretending to be other buyers of the home. They walk through talking the place up…what a great value it is…and how they are going to try to go put an offer in on it right away.  Thank goodness I don’t think this has ever happened to me. And I know my sellers would never do this.

I believe this is part of the reason I have been so successful over the years. I try to never rush anyone. These are huge decisions, and everybody has their own pace at going through them. I’ve seen people make the decision in 5 minutes, and others that take months.

So please…if you are selling your home..give the buyer and their broker the courtesy of being able to take their time, and progress at their pace. Even if you are the kind of person who wishes the seller was their to hear their stories, and answer their questions, most buyers aren’t. Go with the odds.