Seller’s Market under $200k—but not over

I’ve been looking at the added sales volume we have had in the Rogue Valley lately, and hearing stories (and experiencing) multiple offer situations. It has been feeling like a seller’s market in many ways. However, it all seems to be in the lower price range. So I just ran a few numbers.

For the record…the numbers are generate from sales reported to Southern Oregon MLS, and are in town properties for sale in Medford, Talent, Phoenix, Ashland and Jacksonville, with reported sales in the last 3 months.

A quick refresher…I am going to be talking about absorbsion rate. That is the rate of current sales divided into current inventory…or how many months it would take to sell all of the available homes if no other homes were listed.

So the numbers go something like this:

• Under $200k, there are currently 332 properties available, and an average of 59 sales a month. So there are 5.5 months of supply.
• Between $200k and $300k there are currently 326 properties available and an average of 32 sales a month. So there are 10 months of supply.
• Between $300k and $500k there are currently 294 properties available and an average of 20 sales a month. So there are 15 months of supply.
• Between $500k and $800k there are currently 124 properties available and an average of 3 sales a month. So there are 41 months of supply.
• Over $800k there are currently 52 properties available and an average of 1 sale a month. So there are 52 months of supply.

A six month supply is considered a balance market….so there is a balanced market at under $200k….but in all other price ranges, it is still a buyer’s market.

How does one account for this? I think the first time home buyers and investors are thinking now is the time to buy. The $8000 tax credit appears to be working. What we are missing is the buyers that are moving up…or the buyers that are moving in from other locations.